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Varna Medical Forum

Heat waves over Varna region and an opportunity for their forecasting

Veneta Ivanova

Abstract

In recent decades it was found that the average temperature in Bulgaria increasing quickly. In terms of human health and comfort it is important to study periods with extremely hot weather. These periods called `heat waves` are sometimes associated with high humidity, and it further complicates perceived by the human body environmental conditions. In this regard, it is well justified the need for forecasting of these extreme events with different duration. Due to the worldwide existing of definitions of the event `heat wave`, the methods with which they are study, naturally determines the final result.

In this work for the Varna region for the period 1959-2010 the seasonal number and trends of heat waves are estimated. Additionally, for the period 2010- 2015 by applying the percentile-based method the number and duration of extreme event for every day of the year are found. A method for their prediction is proposed.


Keywords

heat wave trends Varna, forecasting heat waves, temperature increasing trends Varna

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