Producer price risk of basic cereals and oilseeds in Black Sea countries

Abstract

The geographic location and the combination of natural and climatic conditions in the Black Sea region are comparatively favorable for cereals and sunflower seeds production and trade.  The region offers a diverse picture of macroeconomic policies that affect agricultural production. This raises the question of the impact of government policies on price levels and price risk rates faced by agricultural producers in Black Sea region countries. The purpose of this paper is to make a comparative assessment of price levels, price risk and the impact of macroeconomic policies on these variables for wheat, maize and sunflower growers on the basis of particular concept of price risk. The survey covers the period 2007-2014. The risk levels in Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Turkey were measured by a coefficient of variation for the prices. In order to assess the impact of government policies on price levels, a Nominal Protection Ratio was used. The impact of world prices on producer prices has been assessed.